I recently archived an article written by J.R. Nyquist on Trevor Louden’s website (link below), both of whom are friends with Gordon Chang — they’re a team allied on their core foreign policy views for both Russia and China. That article tries to make the case that Putin is a secret communist.
I should start by saying I’m deeply anti-communist. I have no sympathy for communism. I write what I do here only to debunk false paranoid conspiratorial excesses that see communist plots in under every rock. To be effective at opposing communism and communists we have to get our facts straight and not waste our energy attacking phantoms.
The aforementioned people are biased hawks who see what they want to see. They can cherry-pick and frame things to make their case, of course, but that’s not interesting or helpful. If their narrative were true then we wouldn’t have such clear and strong evidence of Putin NOT wanting to take Ukraine and trying to negotiate its neutrality, to pick just one example. I can cite chapter and verse proving this case with countless empirical facts over years -- and I will below. Though Trevor and his gang would merely invent epicycles to explain away the mountains of contrary evidence and point back to this one time in the 1980s when a person said a thing, therefore the mountain of evidence should be dismissed as merely demonstrating the cynical cunning of our enemy who’s playing not just 4d chess but 8d underwater backgammon. On their read, even when our enemy fails or concedes something this is only ever part of a broader plot to feign weakness for a coming attack.
Trevor, Nyuist, and Chang et al are either:
1. Delusional or
2. Operatives for the state department / CIA.
I strongly lean toward #2 for Trevor and Chang, and #1 for Nyquist. By saying I think Nyquist is delusional I want to be clear that I also think he's a very smart and knowledgeable man. He's definitely not an idiot. Clever people are far better at rationalizing their existing beliefs than dumb people. Nyquist is very clever.
Let’s start the debunking with some quotes from his article:
“[…] Because this subject is of grave importance to our country, and because the danger of war is growing day to day, we should no longer allow naïve judgments about Russia to pass without contradiction.
[…]
In January 2016 Putin publicly criticized Lenin. But he didn’t criticize Lenin for being a communist. He criticized Lenin for “providing regions with autonomy.” By doing this, Lenin “planted an atomic bomb under the building that is called Russia and which would later explode.” This explosion took place in 1991 and led to the breakup of the Soviet Union. Putin was not criticizing Lenin’s communist ideas. He was criticizing Lenin for causing the breakup of the Soviet Union. […]”
In 1990 as part of the negotiated end of the Soviet Union the US and other western leaders promised not to expand NATO “one inch east” (of Germany) thereby reducing the pressure on Russia to act to defend itself from an expansive encroaching military alliance hostile to Russia. There have been many propagandistic attempts to downplay or debunk this, though we have the declassified documents and statements from the men involved:
After agreeing not to expand NATO in 1990 the US aggressively sought to expand NATO. Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland in 1999, Bulgaria Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004, Albania, and Croatia in 2009, Montenegro in 2017, North Macedonia in 2020, Finland in 2023 and Sweden in 2024. Since Russia was assured that NATO was would expand "one inch east" the US has grown NATO by 16 more countries.
In 2004 the US aggressively pursued a color revolution in Ukraine to achieve regime change. This was called the “orange” color revolution:
https://epistemology.locals.com/upost/2009271/book-revolution-in-orange-the-origins-of-ukraine-s-democratic-breakthrough-chapter-7-we
Imagine if China or Russia pursued a color revolution in Canada or Mexico — what would happen? The example of the 1962 “Cuban missile crisis” tells us: the US would freak out and invoke the Monroe Doctrine (any intervention in the political affairs of the Americas by foreign powers is a hostile act) to justify sending planes, tanks, and troops to crush it.
Both before and after the Cuban missile crisis the US launched many efforts to pursue regime change in Cuba. Depending on which sources you believe the number of regime change efforts ranges from dozens to hundreds, though in any case it's not a short list. Just from declassified CIA documents alone we can be certain the number was more than you can count on both hands. The US believes it has the right if not the duty (cf. Monroe Doctrine) to disallow what it perceives as hostile foreign influence anywhere near the US homeland and it has used both subversive methods and warfare to achieve this.
In 2008 at a NATO meeting in Bucharest the NATO officials admitted their expansionist plans openly, including for Ukraine:
"We, the Heads of State and Government of the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, met today to enlarge our Alliance and further strengthen our ability to confront the existing and emerging 21st century security threats.
[...]
NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO. [...]"
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
At this point we should take note that Russia is an unusually historically-minded nation and civilization which has been invaded at least 5 different times through Ukraine in the last few hundred years -- as recently as WW2 -- due to the features of the geography relative to Russia's core:
"[...] If God had built mountains in eastern Ukraine, then the great expanse of flatland that is the European Plain would not have been such inviting territory for the invaders who have attacked Russia from there repeatedly through history. As things stand, Putin, like Russian leaders before him, likely feels he has no choice but to at least try to control the flatlands to Russia’s west. So it is with landscapes around the world—their physical features imprison political leaders, constraining their choices and room for maneuver. These rules of geography are especially clear in Russia, where power is hard to defend, and where for centuries leaders have compensated by pushing outward.
[...]
In the past 500 years, Russia has been invaded several times from the west. The Poles came across the European Plain in 1605, followed by the Swedes under Charles XII in 1707, the French under Napoleon in 1812, and the Germans—twice, in both world wars, in 1914 and 1941. [...]"https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/10/russia-geography-ukraine-syria/413248/
If any western leader were a leader in Russia and saw an expansionist military alliance that opposes Russia trying to take root in Ukraine they would do the same things Russia has done -- or more. This is easily understood on basic security grounds (cf. Monroe Doctrine). In response to that 2008 push to get Ukraine into NATO then-ambassador to Russia (and now CIA director) William Burns wrote a secret diplomatic cable back to the US federal government describing the Russian reaction. We know about this only because of Wikileaks which published the cable (now referred to colloquially as the "nyet means nyet" memo):
The whole classified US cable makes for an interesting read though I'll focus on just one paragraph:
"[...] Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia's influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face. [...]"
This 2008 US diplomatic cable makes it clear the US was well aware of Russia's concerns and understood the legitimacy of their concerns, yet proceeded with further efforts to gain control over Ukraine to make them a de facto if not official member of NATO.
In 2014 the US tried another regime change operation in Ukraine and this time succeeded. We have a leaked phone call between Victoria Nuland (Assistant Secretary of State) and Geoffrey Pyatt (US Ambassador to Ukraine) talking about the final details of their involvement in the US coup in Ukraine in 2014 where they decide who will run the country:
Following the 2014 coup the US installed 12 secret CIA bases in Ukraine (more than any other country the CIA operates in -- a huge presence) according to reporting from the New York Times based on having visited the secret bases in Ukraine and talking to over 200 people involved:
"[...] The C.I.A.’s partnership in Ukraine can be traced back to two phone calls on the night of Feb. 24, 2014, eight years to the day before Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Millions of Ukrainians had just overrun the country’s pro-Kremlin government and the president, Viktor Yanukovych, and his spy chiefs had fled to Russia. In the tumult, a fragile pro-Western government quickly took power. [...]"
The CIA work in Ukraine wasn't just surveillance, they used Ukraine as a staging ground to setup sleeper cells inside Russia to engage in terrorism inside Russia by 2014:
https://epistemology.locals.com/post/3267440/antiwar-com-report-the-cia-is-directing-sabotage-attacks-inside-russia-using-operation-glad
The CIA wasn't alone in training and directing terrorists from Ukraine to operate inside Russia, they also received assistance from British intelligence MI6:
Following the US coup in Ukraine that installed a government hostile to Russia one of their first public acts was to ban use of the Russian language inside Ukraine -- a country in which more than 1/3rd of the whole population spoke Russian (including their current leader Zelensky). Russian language speakers aren't evenly distributed across Ukraine they're focused in the areas geographically nearest Russia. This triggered open civil war inside Ukraine where the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts sought independence from the western-controlled regime in Kiev. These regions asked to join the Russian Federation and Putin said no. Putin didn't want to take these regions.
Russia has had a critical-for-them naval military presense in Crimea since 1786 -- before the US was founded. Crimea has been Russia's only warm-water port for centuries. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union Russia has had a long-term lease on Crimea renewed in 2010 for another 25+ years. Following the 2014 US coup in Ukraine Russia saw the writing on the wall and realized they were under imminent threat of losing their only warm water port and so annexed Crimea. It should be noted that the majority of Crimean residents favored this according to not just a plebicite run by Russia, but according to US government-funded surveys of public sentiment in Crimea. This meant Crimea was now officially a part of Russia from Russia's perspective though Ukraine didn't see it that way and vowed to retake Crimea.
By 2015 the CIA was training nazi's in Ukraine to fight Russia:
https://epistemology.locals.com/post/1875873/cia-trained-nazis-in-ukraine-to-fight-russia
By 2017 the US was publicly sending weapons to Ukraine, starting with Javelin missiles.
By 2019 the RAND Corporation had drawn up plans for subversive, economic, and military measures to harm Russia:
"[...] The purpose of the project was to examine a range of possible means to extend Russia. By this, we mean nonviolent measures that could stress Russia’s military or economy or the regime’s political standing at home and abroad. The steps we posit would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime purpose, although they might contribute to both. Rather, these steps are conceived of as measures that would lead Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage, causing Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and influence. This report deliberately covers a wide range of military, economic, and political policy options. Its recommendations are directly relevant to everything from military modernization and force posture to economic sanctions and diplomacy; consequently, it speaks to all the military services, other parts of U.S. government that have a hand in foreign policy, and the broader foreign and defense policy audience.
[...]
Most of these measures—whether in Europe or the Middle East— risk provoking Russian reaction that could impose large military costs on U.S. allies and large political costs on the United States itself. Increasing military advice and arms supplies to Ukraine is the most feasible of these options with the largest impact, but any such initiative would have to be calibrated very carefully to avoid a widely expanded conflict. [...]"
Also in 2019 Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected president of Ukraine on a platform of peace: friendliness toward Russia, and tolerance of and integration with the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts. By March of 2021 Zelesnky signed a loftily-worded decree making it clear he was not going to pursue peace, but military dominance of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk:
This action was met with great concern by Russia who saw it -- correctly -- as a threat by Ukraine that they were going to (re)take Crimea by force. From Russia's point of view this meant Ukraine was planning to attack the Russian homeland. Russian officials had no doubt read the RAND Corporation document as well -- it's public -- and realized the US was hell-bent on harming Russia using Ukraine as a weapon. Ukranian officials were planning on going to war with Russia using NATO was their shield:
By this time in 2019 we have US and British spies training nazis and terrorsts to harm Russia, we have the US shipping weapons to Ukraine, and we've had 5 years of NATO countries training the Ukrainian military -- all following a US coup in 2014. Add up the evidence and it's very clear what the west has done: make Ukraine a de facto member of NATO while pushing aggressively to make it official. Given this bleak reality -- that Russia's absolute red line of Ukraine being in NATO was being violated -- Russian officials began drawing up plans to reverse this. The first attempt was diplomatic. Later in 2019 Russia tried to negotiate with NATO insisting on an ironclad treaty ruling out NATO expansion into Ukraine and more broadly rolling back prior NATO expansions to those of 1997:
"The demands, spelled out by Moscow in full for the first time, were handed over to the US this week. They include a demand that Nato remove any troops or weapons deployed to countries that entered the alliance after 1997, which would include much of eastern Europe, including Poland, the former Soviet countries of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and the Balkan countries.
Russia has also demanded that Nato rule out further expansion, including the accession of Ukraine into the alliance, and that it does not hold drills without previous agreement from Russia in Ukraine, eastern Europe, in Caucasus countries such as Georgia or in Central Asia."
The US and NATO declined such a treaty according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg:
“[…] The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that. [...]"
The refusal of NATO to sign a treaty meant Russia had exhausted diplomatic efforts to prevent NATO expansion into Ukraine and so Russia prepared for a military operation it later launched in February 2022:
This Russian "special military operation" (SMO) was meant to be a lighting attack just strong enough for force Ukraine to negotiate. The Russian SMO worked, by April 15th 2022 a draft treaty had been initialed:
Ukrainian officials said Russia was prepared to end their SMO as early as March -- just a few weeks after the start of the SMO -- if Ukraine had agreed:
Former Ukraine officials said after the fact the treaty was a good deal and contained many consessions from Russia:
Unfortunately the US and UK blocked Ukraine from signing the treaty:
It's clear that various western interests were concerned this early peace negotiation would end the war "too soon" when they believed they had an opportunity to harm Russia (remember the "Extending Russia" paper from RAND):
Once Ukraine pulled out of the peace negotiations with Russia in April 2022 -- after being pushed by the US and UK to do so -- Russia changed it's goal from forcing a negotiation to imposing it's goals using military force. Russia mobilized more soldiers and ramped up military production and set plans to annex Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts -- which they did by Septermber 2022.
Despite repeated warnings the US has given long-range (190 mile) missiles to Ukraine in 2024 and so Russia has said in response they will impose a buffer zone big enough to protect what they perceive as Russian homeland, including the annexed regions (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia). This means Russia will not accept anything less than conquering 190 miles beyond the already-annexed territories. Until and unless Ukraine -- and most importantly the US -- agree to negotiate an end to this conflict Russia will continue to demilitarize Ukraine (killing all their soliders, destroying all their war production capability), and will continue to advance it's troops ever-deeper into what was once Ukrainian territory. If Ukraine doesn't surrender they may not have any country left by the time Russia is done.
I've summarized the key facts of this issue and provided citations which expand on what I've summarized to document clearly what Russia has done and why. Russia did not want war, contrary to what Nyquist et al claimed in 2017. Russia does not want to reclaim the territory of the Soviet Union, as claimed by Nyquist. Russia wants security for itself along its own borders and has been completely unambigous about this for years and now decades. If you poke a bear in the eye don't be surprised if they bite you.
Context:
https://epistemology.locals.com/post/5563022/archive-j-r-nyquist-is-vladimir-putin-a-communist
https://epistemology.locals.com/post/5558336/independent-ukraine-war-analysis-as-of-april-25th-2024